Next Prime minister in India
January 27th 2008 01:36
Mayawati, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous state, could very well have a new job in 2008. She could be India's next Prime Minister after the Lok Sabha Elections are held.
India and neighbouring Sri Lanka have a history of female leaders, ranging from the late prime minister Indira Gandhi to Congress party president Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha (former chief minister of Tamil Nadu), Vasundhara Raje (chief minister of Rajasthan) and Mamta Banerjee (a member of Parliament from West Bengal).
However, as Indira did, predictions are that Mayawati could go all the way if she manages to replicate some of her success at the state elections in UP.
UP sends 85 members of Parliament and has a history of producing prime ministers. Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira, V P Singh, Rajiv Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. So if Mayawati could get a bulk of the UP seats and a few more in northern states such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh, Bihar and Gujarat where her political outfit, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), enjoys support, she could command in the range of 120-140 seats, the same as the currently ruling Congress party.
In this age of coalition politics, these seats could ensure that Maya Memsaab becomes the PM. Mayawati, who is a former schoolteacher, who wanted to be a civil-servant and a firebrand grassroots leader with a mind of her own, has read the political situation well.
Parties have been broadly jostling for four vote bases - the upper castes (Brahmins, Banias, Rajputs, Kayastas and Kshatriyas), the other backward castes or OBCs), SCs (considered the most backward caste), and the Muslims.
Congress attempts at reservations (quotas) in educational institutions are meant to curry favor with the middle castes that have so far aligned themselves with regional outfits Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and are unlikely to change loyalties.
Mayawati's party has traditionally represented the scheduled castes, and because of this she had never before managed a majority in UP despite three previous short tenures as chief minister. She has sought support from the BJP and the SP in the past, but without much success.
However, this time her formula of seeking out upper castes and roping in Brahmin leaders as mascots, allotting them party tickets and now ministerial berths has produced wonders. The result: for the first time in 15 years, a party enjoys an absolute majority in UP.
The two national parties Congress and the BJP are yet to recover from this shock.
The BJP got it wrong during the previous federal elections in 2004, when it went overboard with the "India Shining" campaign, to be delivered a resounding snub by the majority of Indian voters who have seen none of the shine. Despite recent state victories in Uttaranchal and Punjab, the BJP has not recovered from the near-political exit of stalwarts Vajpayee and L K Advani and voters continue to be suspicious about its communal agenda. Today its most powerful leader is the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi who is a likely contender for the seat of PM along with LK Advani and Rajnath Singh.
Mayawati is poised to steal Sonia's thunder at the national level as well.
The Congress has been trying to outdo the BJP by announcing massive rural employment and regeneration programs. However, the impact of such efforts is negligible without putting in place an effective delivery mechanism. The lower Indian bureaucracy, police and lower judicial systems remain hopelessly corrupt, and any grassroots change cannot happen without reforming these.
Elementary schools and health facilities in rural towns and villages are inadequate. Similar has been the case with infrastructure projects, whether roads or power, where projects lag and corruption is endemic.
Indeed, Indian politics today is about managing the aspirations of the various castes and classes. The rich and the middle classes, who belong mostly to the upper and middle castes, want governments to deliver on infrastructure and not be an impediment to growth.
Nobody doubts that the private sector has performed despite the government. Government interference is the minimum in the high-growth services sector.
The government today is sitting on the largest kitty of tax collections because of a high-growth Indian economy, which most believe is not due to government efforts but to private initiatives.
Thus in the recent past, incumbent state governments have been shunted out in Punjab, Uttaranchal and UP. The Delhi government has bucked the trend by following a strong development agenda.
Perhaps Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has realized the drift, as he recently spoke about the need for the rich to be less flashy to prevent social unrest. But it will take some doing for the Congress to escape anti-incumbency.
India and neighbouring Sri Lanka have a history of female leaders, ranging from the late prime minister Indira Gandhi to Congress party president Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha (former chief minister of Tamil Nadu), Vasundhara Raje (chief minister of Rajasthan) and Mamta Banerjee (a member of Parliament from West Bengal).
However, as Indira did, predictions are that Mayawati could go all the way if she manages to replicate some of her success at the state elections in UP.
In this age of coalition politics, these seats could ensure that Maya Memsaab becomes the PM. Mayawati, who is a former schoolteacher, who wanted to be a civil-servant and a firebrand grassroots leader with a mind of her own, has read the political situation well.
Parties have been broadly jostling for four vote bases - the upper castes (Brahmins, Banias, Rajputs, Kayastas and Kshatriyas), the other backward castes or OBCs), SCs (considered the most backward caste), and the Muslims.
Congress attempts at reservations (quotas) in educational institutions are meant to curry favor with the middle castes that have so far aligned themselves with regional outfits Samajwadi Party (SP) in UP, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and are unlikely to change loyalties.
However, this time her formula of seeking out upper castes and roping in Brahmin leaders as mascots, allotting them party tickets and now ministerial berths has produced wonders. The result: for the first time in 15 years, a party enjoys an absolute majority in UP.
The two national parties Congress and the BJP are yet to recover from this shock.
The BJP got it wrong during the previous federal elections in 2004, when it went overboard with the "India Shining" campaign, to be delivered a resounding snub by the majority of Indian voters who have seen none of the shine. Despite recent state victories in Uttaranchal and Punjab, the BJP has not recovered from the near-political exit of stalwarts Vajpayee and L K Advani and voters continue to be suspicious about its communal agenda. Today its most powerful leader is the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi who is a likely contender for the seat of PM along with LK Advani and Rajnath Singh.
Mayawati is poised to steal Sonia's thunder at the national level as well.
The Congress has been trying to outdo the BJP by announcing massive rural employment and regeneration programs. However, the impact of such efforts is negligible without putting in place an effective delivery mechanism. The lower Indian bureaucracy, police and lower judicial systems remain hopelessly corrupt, and any grassroots change cannot happen without reforming these.
Elementary schools and health facilities in rural towns and villages are inadequate. Similar has been the case with infrastructure projects, whether roads or power, where projects lag and corruption is endemic.
Indeed, Indian politics today is about managing the aspirations of the various castes and classes. The rich and the middle classes, who belong mostly to the upper and middle castes, want governments to deliver on infrastructure and not be an impediment to growth.
Nobody doubts that the private sector has performed despite the government. Government interference is the minimum in the high-growth services sector.
The government today is sitting on the largest kitty of tax collections because of a high-growth Indian economy, which most believe is not due to government efforts but to private initiatives.
Thus in the recent past, incumbent state governments have been shunted out in Punjab, Uttaranchal and UP. The Delhi government has bucked the trend by following a strong development agenda.
Perhaps Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has realized the drift, as he recently spoke about the need for the rich to be less flashy to prevent social unrest. But it will take some doing for the Congress to escape anti-incumbency.
| 93 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog
Comment by jon
Orble News
Urban Hint
Blog Adviser
You may also need to add the email address admin -at- orblemail.com to your address book in order to receive Orble admin emails in the future.
Thanks,
Jon.